EFSTATHIOS KASSIOS

Personal analysis & comments, few hours before the result of US elections.

On November 5, I was invited to comment on the impact of the US elections on global markets (few hours before the final results) in Hellas Fm radio which broadcasts live to the Greek-American community of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.

Here are some personal comments & analysis that I shared with the listeners and the respected host of the radio show, Mr. Nikos Xidiroglou:

Impact on Global Markets if Trump Wins

If Trump were to win, global markets could initially react with heightened volatility, particularly in sectors where his policies have historically made a significant impact, such as energy, defense, and technology. Trump’s policies on trade protectionism could renew concerns over tariffs, especially affecting China and the EU, potentially leading to defensive strategies in these markets. Emerging markets could face pressures due to possible renewed sanctions or tariffs, while the dollar could see a boost if Trump pursues policies that incentivize repatriation of capital and tax reforms favoring large corporations.

Investors might react positively in sectors tied to Trump’s pro-business stances, such as energy and manufacturing. However, renewed trade tensions could dampen global growth expectations and create uncertainty, especially in regions highly interconnected with the U.S. economy.

Impact on Global Markets if Kamala Harris Wins

If Kamala Harris wins, markets might respond with a moderate rally, reflecting expectations of stability in international relations and a cooperative stance with global allies.

Harris’s platform, likely to focus on sustainable development, clean energy, and tech regulation, could foster favorable reactions in clean energy markets, especially in Europe and Asia. A shift towards a regulated tech environment might introduce short-term uncertainty for tech giants.

Increased cooperation with global allies could help calm global markets, particularly in regions reliant on U.S. trade.

Emerging markets might anticipate support through diplomatic engagement and trade, which could provide a boost, although increased focus on corporate tax and wealth redistribution could affect specific sectors such as finance and large-cap growth companies.

Key Issues Both Candidates Will Face

1. Economic Recovery Post-COVID-19: Both candidates will need robust strategies for ensuring continued economic recovery, dealing with high inflation, and addressing the lingering impacts on small businesses.
2. Healthcare Reform: Rising healthcare costs and access disparities remain central. Both candidates will likely face pressure to propose comprehensive health policies.
3. Climate Change: With global expectations for climate action increasing, addressing sustainable energy policies and environmental regulations will be crucial.
4. Geopolitical Relations: Navigating U.S. relations with China, Russia, and the EU remains complex. Both candidates would need clear strategies for managing trade, security, and diplomacy with major global players.

These issues highlight the importance of having well-defined policies that balance economic growth, environmental responsibility, and national security.

–Efstathios Kassios