Assorted tweets and global business links – January 2022

Will NFTs become bigger than BTC? – Read HERE

40 years after the Falklands war – Read HERE

Five of world’s most powerful nations pledge to avoid nuclear war – Read HERE


“Η ευημερία άρχισε να υποχωρεί στην αρχή του 1929, αν και ο λαός δεν άρχισε να το διαπιστώνει παρά μόνο μετά την εντυπωσιακή καταστροφή στο χρηματιστήριο τον Οκτώβρη” – Financial History of the United States – Paul Studenki


Bank of Mexico Plans to Launch Digital Currency by 2024 – Read HERE


Researchers shrink camera to the size of a salt grain – Read HERE


The Coming Multiverses – Read HERE


Metals Demand From Energy Transition May Top Current Global Supply – Read HERE


On Greek Public Debt – Read HERE


The 5 Biggest Global Trends Every Business Must Be Ready For – Read HERE


Various political & economic articles of Stathis Kassios – Read HERE


When will China rule the world? – Read HERE

-Your truly Stathis Kassios

Inflation and Global Supply Chain

One of the greatest economists of all time, John Kenneth Galbraith, had said that inflation does not last forever. We are not in the post-Covid era yet since the 4th wave of the pandemic is here in my country Greece and other countries are already entering the 5th wave. What dominates the world news right now is the hot price increases, the general rise in food and fuel prices, the global inflation wave along with the disruptions of the global supply chain. Who is mostly affected by inflation? But of course the global middle class. Businesses around the world are facing delays to receive their stock orders in anticipation of Christmas, but their orders will eventually find buyers because there is excessive demand. Citizens are therefore the ones who are already paying the price. Why; It is simple. As GDP growth slows, consumer purchasing power shrinks and inflation negatively affects the real value of each household’s wallet. Let us not forget that with the advancement of vaccinations and the gradual opening up of the economies, a large proportion of the money moving into the real economy is actually allowances or subsidies in the context of governments’ fiscal support and European monetary policy support and recovery.

Inflation is growing at such a rate that central bankers in the US, Europe, Asia, will not be able to intervene with visible effect, even if they are forced by politicians. It seems that they can only wait for this wave to pass and the economies to return to normal levels of production, distribution, supply and demand. Other countries are already discussing about raising the -almost zero- interest rates while at the same time worrying that this will hurt the labor market, growth expectations and wage growth, leading to stag-inflation or recession-inflation and a general economic slowdown. Even if global demand reaches pre-Covid levels, driven by high prices as an opportunity for business profitability, supply chain disruptions will delay to be normalized until the end of 2022, according to various forecasts.

Flexibility is probably the right answer and the golden balance point that political leaders are looking for to manage inflationary pressures, in parallel with the obligation to draw up their own balance budgets for the next one or two years and their own political agendas of fiscal adjustment. In the wake of global inflation, Bitcoin cryptocurrency reached or exceeded $ 60,000, positively affecting several of the other alternative cryptocurrencies and attracting new micro-investors.

Economists and analysts around the world predict another year of inflation, barriers to production base and supply, along with easy ongoing monetary and fiscal policies, uncertainty and the risks posed by the continuing emergence of Covid19 mutations. It has been a long time in human history since all the economic variables together contributed to the perfect storm.

But to conclude with optimism, as Galbraith said, one day inflation ends, people and markets seek stability in times of inflation, and the economy responds to the end by leading to a mutually desired equilibrium.

Efstathios Kassios

Book Author – Economist – Business Consultant

Πληθωρισμός και παγκόσμια εφοδιαστική αλυσίδα

Ένας από τους μεγαλύτερους οικονομολόγους όλων των εποχών, ο Τζον Κένεθ Γκάλμπρεϊθ, είχε πει ότι ο πληθωρισμός δεν διαρκεί παντοτινά. Δεν βρισκόμαστε ακόμη στη μετά Covid εποχή, αφού το 4ο κύμα της πανδημίας είναι εδώ στη χώρα μας και άλλες χώρες εισέρχονται ήδη στο 5ο. Αυτό που κυριαρχεί στις παγκόσμιες ειδήσεις, είναι οι καυτές ανατιμήσεις, η γενική αύξηση των τιμών στα τρόφιμα και τα καύσιμα, το παγκόσμιο πληθωριστικό κύμα παράλληλα με τις διαταραχές της παγκόσμιας εφοδιαστικής αλυσίδας.

Ποιος πλήττεται όμως περισσότερο από τον πληθωρισμό; Μα φυσικά η παγκόσμια μεσαία τάξη. Μπορεί οι επιχειρήσεις ανά τον κόσμο να αργήσουν να παραλάβουν τα εμπορεύματά τους, ενόψει και της γιορτής των Χριστουγέννων, οι παραγγελίες τους όμως θα βρουν στο τέλος αγοραστές. Υπερβάλλουσα ζήτηση υπάρχει.

Οι πολίτες είναι λοιπόν αυτοί που ήδη πληρώνουν το τίμημα. Γιατί; Είναι απλό. Εφόσον επιβραδύνεται η ανάπτυξη του ΑΕΠ, συρρικνώνεται η αγοραστική δύναμη των καταναλωτών και ο πληθωρισμός επηρεάζει αρνητικά τη πραγματική αξία που διαθέτει στο πορτοφόλι του το κάθε νοικοκυριό. Ας μη ξεχνάμε, ότι με τη πρόοδο των εμβολιασμών και το σταδιακό άνοιγμα της οικονομίας, μεγάλο ποσοστό των χρημάτων που κινούνται στη πραγματική οικονομία είναι επιδόματα ή επιδοτήσεις στα πλαίσια της δημοσιονομικής στήριξης και της Ευρωπαϊκής νομισματικής πολιτικής υποστήριξης και ανάκαμψης.

Ο πληθωριστικός ρυθμός αναπτύσσεται με τέτοια ταχύτητα που οι κεντρικοί τραπεζίτες σε ΗΠΑ, Ευρώπη, Ασία, δεν θα μπορούν να παρέμβουν με ορατό αποτέλεσμα, ακόμη και αν υποχρεωθούν από τους πολιτικούς, παρά μόνο να περιμένουν πότε θα περάσει αυτό το κύμα και οι οικονομίες επανέλθουν στα φυσιολογικά επίπεδα παραγωγής, διανομής, προσφοράς και ζήτησης. Άλλες χώρες συζητάνε ήδη την αύξηση των -σχεδόν μηδενικών- επιτοκίων ενώ την ίδια στιγμή ανησυχούν ότι αυτό θα πλήξει την αγορά εργασίας, τις προσδοκίες για ανάπτυξη και αύξηση των μισθών, οδηγώντας σε φαινόμενα στασιμοπληθωρισμού και γενικότερης επιβράδυνσης της οικονομίας. Ακόμη και η παγκόσμια ζήτηση να φτάσει στα προ Covid επίπεδα, οδηγούμενη από τις υψηλές τιμές ως ευκαιρία για επιχειρηματική κερδοφορία, οι διαταραχές στις εφοδιαστικές αλυσίδες θα καθυστερήσουν να ομαλοποιηθούν μέχρι και το τέλος του 2022 σύμφωνα με διάφορες προβλέψεις.

Η ευελιξία είναι μάλλον η χρυσή απάντηση και η χρυσή τομή που αναζητούν οι πολιτικοί ηγέτες για να ισορροπήσουν τις πληθωριστικές πιέσεις, με την υποχρέωση σύνταξης των δικών τους προϋπολογισμών για τα επόμενα ένα με δύο χρόνια και τις δικές τους πολιτικές ατζέντες δημοσιονομικής προσαρμογής. Στον απόηχο του παγκόσμιου πληθωρισμού, το κρυπτονόμισμα Bitcoin έφτασε ή ξεπέρασε τις $60.000, συμπαρασύροντας θετικά και αρκετά από τα υπόλοιπα εναλλακτικά κρυπτονομίσματα και τη προσέλκυση νέων μικρο-επενδυτών.

Οικονομολόγοι και αναλυτές από ολόκληρο το κόσμο προβλέπουν άλλο ένα έτος πληθωρισμού, εμποδίων στη παραγωγική βάση και τον εφοδιασμό, παράλληλα με τις εύκολες συνεχείς νομισματικές και δημοσιονομικές πολιτικές, την αβεβαιότητα και τα ρίσκα που δημιουργεί η συνεχιζόμενη εμφάνιση μεταλλάξεων του Covid19. Έχουν περάσει αρκετά χρόνια από τότε που όλες οι οικονομικές μεταβλητές μαζί να συντελούν στη τέλεια καταιγίδα.

Για να κλείσουμε όμως με αισιοδοξία, όπως είπε και ο Galbraith, κάποτε ο πληθωρισμός τελειώνει, οι άνθρωποι και οι αγορές επιζητούν τη σταθερότητα σε περιόδους πληθωρισμού και η οικονομία ανταποκρίνεται στο τέλος, οδηγώντας στην ισορροπία.

Ευστάθιος Κάσσιος

Συγγραφέας – Οικονομολόγος – Σύμβουλος Επιχειρήσεων

https://twitter.com/stathiskassios

Global Markets in Turmoil due to Covid-19

Dear friends, I am totally overwhelmed with the quality and quantity of fake news and pseudo-science publications, news, and social media posts, amidst this global health and economic crisis due to Covid-19. I believe that the knowledge generated by Big Data is the proper scientific answer to misinformation and propaganda.

Read the graphs in real time, evaluate your sources, think, understand and filter out the noise and nonsense.

Do you also feel that a new age of geopolitics, global finance and banking is rising due to the Coronavirus? Here’s one of the best articles I have read so far summoning the global crisis of 2008 up to today’s global economic turmoil: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-economy-currency.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Find below a list of valid sources to better track all the news and monitor your understanding of this virus:

Coronavirus Live Updateshttps://ncov2019.live/?fbclid=IwAR2FVQM7Hr_iGGDod_bQsblgn–xmN-R7ukuvMHcJYrQ1spbB7LhZ-hgjag

Coronavirus is our Futurehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqw-9yMV0sI&fbclid=IwAR3nWroGRZl1aK7jeuc9U23M0QGGZtWKky8X6bXDTo0klj19AA1DBPczHPs

A visual history of pandemicshttps://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-visual-history-of-pandemics?fbclid=IwAR1gtkCgUOa19iZK0KviMa3rxj0borxb10Nt4wxdzGkYmuq6FRdPxrL2PHw

wordometerhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0A5qRvX_3Sl7bBViaj62kjIHa8TzmQ5wsAUtOwv82vXzRWBh5kihfl6i0#countries

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Situation: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd?fbclid=IwAR0A5qRvX_3Sl7bBViaj62kjIHa8TzmQ5wsAUtOwv82vXzRWBh5kihfl6i0

Global Market Updates:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/business/stock-market-today.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage&fbclid=IwAR3-_ZOeZ-JjGa_xA-wCa4qj_ghWDs0ZI7BdFe5Lxr8fHZY3Xa0JCx1h_es#link-7b8a05fb

Yours truly
Stathis Kassios

Follow me on Twitter for live updates: https://twitter.com/stathiskassios?lang=el

PS. If you have access or are aware of more valid sources please send them to me and I will add those

Assorted business links – End of October 2019

No one runs America. That’s the terror and the beauty of American life in a nutshell – Read HERE

Update on doing business in Pakistan – Read HERE

The five factors to determine the course of Greek bonds – Read HERE

Who deserves the Nobel for China’s economic development? – Read HERE

Master of the Universe Documentary – Read HERE

Transitioning to circular business models conference – Read HERE

Bitcoin price surge – Read HERE

 

Assorted Links – May 2019

5 apps before your next trip

A Startup Nation: Why Israel Has Become The New Silicon Valley

The Man Who Saw the Future

The New Green Jobs Coming

Facebook Is ‘Too Big.’ Facebook Co-Founder Chris Hughes Tells Us Why | NYT Opinion

Cashing out in Uber’s IPO: China, Russia and the Middle East

Budweiser Brewer Plans $7 Billion Hong Kong IPO

Sweden Is Capitalist

 

Assorted links – October 2018

Some of the articles I have been reading lately. Have any comments? Share below! Let’s discuss current and future trends.

Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen dies of cancer at age 65

Consulting, Funding, GDPR Services in Greece & Cyprus

Blockchain Explained

Tim Berners-Lee tells us his radical new plan to upend the World Wide Web

Moovit app available in 23 Greek cities & islands and in Nicosia, Cyprus. Download free

Assorted links – September 2018

Elon Musk agrees to resign as Tesla chairman in settlement with SEC

Folli Follie Says Probe Found Asia Sales Overstated by 90%

The Dawn of Eurasia: On the Trail of the New World Order

Google Play Just Changed EVERYTHING

Apple acquires Shazam, offering more ways to discover and enjoy music

10 δωρεάν εφαρμογές που κάθε φοιτητής πρέπει να έχει στο κινητό του

A decade after the global financial crisis: What has (and hasn’t) changed?

Alibaba Puts the Brakes on U.S. Cloud Expansion

Best free Android apps of 2018: 100 you must download

Greece was never bailed out – it remains locked in an EU debtor’s prison

THE RISE OF THE COMPUTER-GENERATED CELEBRITY

IMF Damns Greece’s Post-Bailout Growth Plan With Faint Praise

Americans Own Less Stuff, and That’s Reason to Be Nervous

 

My personal predictions for 2018 – tech & business trends in a globally connected world

It is this time of the year again to share my personal thoughts & predictions for how the world will change more in the new year with all the tech, business & economic developments taking place around the globe. Do you feel the world is a smaller place with all the direct global communications and consumption of media content? As we are bombarded daily with massive information through social media platforms, subconscious confusion is lurking in our rational thinking and we crush in perception walls of not understanding the events or the international forces that affect and shape our lives as economic entities & citizens. These global powers are aggressively shaping urbanization and the future which is now.

What a year for Bitcoin. There will be more excitement for cryptocurrencies as some financial institutions are starting to see opportunities where other bankers or governments see a growing threat for traditional currencies, trade and exchanges. History teaches us that when regulatory agencies tried to limit a new technology embraced by millions, they ended up strengthening these movements instead of stoping their activity. Just check the global news on Bitcoin to see that it is here to stay.

Bitcoin technology is hard to attack because of its decentralization core features making it less vulnerable to hackers and cyber attacks, in comparison to traditional online banking systems which are far more centralized as financial data stored or customer records can be broken (See Equifax). Cybersecurity therefore will be vital for customer trust and the IT infrastructure of banks needs to be updated, an opportunity for fintech startups. Goldman Sachs has decided to trade bitcoins which is a positive sign for potential investors of cryptocurrencies. The expected fluctuation of the Bitcoin price is normal because of its natural risk. Blockchain technologies supporting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be an attractive field for investors willing to pour money in startups that develop blockchain to secure these systems from hacking or create new business models. Blockchain will make sure that data communications and financial exchanges will remain secure across the manufacturing, processing, distribution chain in various industries.

The banking and finance industry has started adopting mobile applications to serve their customers where a physical presence is not needed. In Asia, more and more people are using their smartphones for various payments, a trend grasped by local banks to offer payment methods through fintech applications. China is leading online payments as millions of people are skipping credit cards, cash, choosing mobile online payments (see Alipay).

Artificial Intelligence: Chatbots are gaining ground and although still in experimentation mode for advanced usage, virtual assistants will start replacing customer support jobs as bots will evolve to serving more complicated tasks and interacting with customers in real time. Bots will soon process our health records, financial records and consult us to optimize our diet or purchases when exceeding our card limits.

Because we are at a critical point where we are closer to creating computer systems that will surpass human performance, marking the beginning of the Singularity era and a new industrial revolution, a wave of change will benefit the world and bring domestic & international problems at the same time. AI will be generating so much data that data analytics will become a new science already taught across universities of the world and through online seminars. Understanding big data means a competitive advantage in global sales, operations and growth for companies. Internet-of-services (IoT) will also produce vast amounts of data and information gathered through sensors applied in house devices connected to the web (See Amazon’s Alexa).

Back in the offline world, Brexit is still discussed and negotiated between UK and EU casting shadows for the unity of the eurozone in 2018. Catalonia is another example of separatist national voices supporting analysts fears for the possible long term collapse of the European Union. A neo-liberal EU where economic and monetary policies are mainly set by Germany and Brussels, find opposition from populist parties and far-right politics. Euro-skepticism and separatism is an important threat to Europe’s unity.

Greece is and will remain the weakest link across all member states of the eurozone with a striving economy and highly indebted. Presenting a budget surplus due to over-taxation and not through real growth prospects is clearly a negative sign for the future of its economy. If Angela Merkel’s coalition government weakens more, we might see a different picture in European politics.

According to the IMF, India will be the country with the highest growth in 2018 leaving even China behind. Asia is the hot bed for watchers of global economic growth. This is because China is focusing on consumer growth along with product innovation. Networking effects will take place as the fruits of China’s economy will positively boost the economies neighbor states. If the world does not face an armed conflict between NK and the West in 2018 (US, SK, Japan), analysts expect moderate economic expansion in Asia although more reforms will be needed to meet global trade policies. Geopolitical tensions of late 2017 in the Eastern world for Jerusalem led by Trump might not scare global markets but Syria is a field where powers will not easily withdraw. Climate change is already affecting our economies and cities, countries should collaborate to further reduce the carbon print.

Global firms, institutions, companies & people, need answers. The way to provide reasonable answers today for the immense changes shaping our lives is by leveraging the power of technology and especially big data generated by smart applications, AI, IoT, Blockchain, online payments, etc. Globalization expressed through technological progress, geopolitical tensions, and the free movement of capital also creates inequality in countries where governments are corrupted or unfriendly policies are imposed upon citizens and entrepreneurs. The global economy is a playfield of technological disruptions, geopolitical tensions and political fragmentation, which will become more intense in 2018. By working together and understanding domestic and international powers will fill us with hope for the future.

Happy New Year!

I dedicate this blog entry & analysis to my daughter, Jenny, who turned 2 in December 2017. 

-Stathis Kassios