Russia’s argument for invading and attacking Ukraine is to oust its “neo-Nazi government” and demilitarize the country. Even if that was the case, according to the attacker, the latter hides the existence of neo-Nazi elements in Russia itself. After all, this invasion is more reminiscent of Hitler’s Nazi Germany against the neighboring countries. At the same time, this war was designed to be a message of strength to the West, NATO and its expansion to the East, always according to the Russian side. We are heading to a new cold world where we will have to review many things and existing agreements on European security.
Step by step, Putin seems to want to rebuild the old Russian (Imperial) Empire of the Soviet Union. This may also be reminiscent of the policy and rhetoric of revisionism used by Erdogan (although not the scope of this article) that Turkey may crave a similar invasion towards Greece.
Does one expansion (NATO) justify the other (Russia)? What has Putin achieved so far, really? To take over Ukraine? On the contrary. It united the sleeping Western world, especially the European countries and NATO members & allies, with their decreasing annual budget expenditures in defence. Europe’s sleeping giant has awakened in a single military, economic, humanitarian fist. No matter how much Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons, there is no return to the status of a mild show of force from the Western world. Let us not forget that NATO is also a nuclear power. Before we get to a nuclear winter let’s first look at some additional issues that arise.
Nuclear arms & power race, through an informal status quo, has historically helped the planet to keep afloat since the almost catastrophic aftermath of the Cold War. This balance is in doubt. This is because the current European and, consequently, global crisis, will be the trigger for the deployment of even more dangerous and deadly weapons, both on the field and in defence, on both sides. Russia and the West will be on the trigger. Let us hope that the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia will find a common ground for a temporary ceasefire. But no one in the United Nations, in Europe, G7, and in the rest of the world, will forget and forgive the invasion and the death of civilians who are not to blame for anything. It is not just a crisis that will be overcome. A new dangerous and not brave world is being born with unpredictable geopolitical, economic, political and energy situations.
The Nordic countries, of the most peaceful in the world, are already opting to increase their defence budgets and are coordinating their next moves to join NATO, no matter how much Russia “barks” at the consequences. Let’s be clear. The Western world, as we know it, is threatened by Russia’s dictatorial regime, we may already be counting losses and managing a new humanitarian crisis with hundreds of thousands of refugees, but in the face of a united Europe, the Putin regime will not count for many days. Biden’s government, no matter how much it has fallen in the polls, has no choice but to follow Europe and NATO in collective decisions, by imposing harsh sanctions on Russian companies, banks and oligarchs. Russia’s economic system at home and abroad is already being attacked by the united West with incalculable macroeconomic consequences.
We are entering spring but a possible nuclear winter will stay with us for a long time, Let’s hope that the term will remain just in the verbal threats and not become realized. In its honor, Ukraine is almost certain to become a dynamic part of the European Union. The first signatures are taking place. The member countries will defy the threat of military intervention by Russia in the event of joining the North Atlantic Alliance. If the West succumbs to the falsification of European history by Putin’s recent sermon to justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we will wake up to a world where China, North Korea, Iran, and other traditional enemies of the Western way of life, will follow Putin’s tactics to attack areas or neighboring countries with new conventional or even nuclear weapons.
Economist, Author, Global Business Consultant