EFSTATHIOS KASSIOS

For several years, the United States and Israel have viewed Iran’s nuclear program as a significant existential threat to the Middle East region, placing it high on both countries’ strategic agendas. Covert operations such as Israel’s Stuxnet cyberattack (not officially confirmed) and targeted assassinations, alongside US-led sanctions and diplomacy through the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) involving Iran and the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, reflect a continued effort to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The Israeli airstrike on June 13, 2025, codenamed Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s Natanz and other nuclear facilities, was not entirely unexpected. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had repeatedly stated his readiness to act, and US intelligence reports as early as May 2025 indicated Israel’s preparations. However, the timing of this strike raises serious concerns given the escalating war in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical implications.

Analysts monitoring Israel’s rhetoric and Iran’s nuclear program had anticipated the attack. Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium had grown, and its refusal to cooperate fully with IAEA inspections had fueled fears of a move toward nuclear weapons. Israel’s strike, which killed senior Iranian military officials and scientists, was aimed at halting that progress. The United States initially did not participate, with President Trump expressing disappointment at the timing of Israel’s strike, as it jeopardized ongoing nuclear diplomacy brokered by Oman. The previous administration by Joe Biden had similarly prioritized diplomacy, making a potential unilateral Israeli action a point of concern and escalation. While the attack destroyed Natanz, experts say it will not permanently halt Iran’s nuclear program because of its scattered infrastructure and scientific expertise. Iran’s response – using ballistic missiles and drones against Israel – led the US and President Trump to immediately intervene by bombing Fordow.

The timing of the conflict is particularly worrying. Beyond the Middle East, the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, with Russia relying on Iranian-supplied drones and missiles, and North Korea reportedly planning to send more troops to support Russia. This nexus complicates the global security landscape. A new, broader, and protracted conflict in the Middle East could strain U.S. military resources already strained by support for Ukraine and send oil prices soaring (on June 19, it reached nearly $80 a barrel), affecting economies worldwide. Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases or through proxies such as the Houthis adds further risks. Russia, an ally of Iran, condemned the attack but offered only mediation, perhaps because of its focus on Ukraine. Other world powers, including the United Kingdom, France, and China, have urged restraint, underscoring fears of an escalation that could lead to World War III.

The strike’s timing is particularly troubling. It intersects with domestic political dynamics in Iran and Israel. The Iranian regime faces internal divisions and disputes, which could harden its stance to rally support from regional allies while it continues to accelerate its clandestine uranium enrichment. In Israel, Netanyahu’s political survival could depend on continued military action, raising the chances of further escalation and new rounds of attacks from both sides. The limited long-term effectiveness of the attack suggests that it may provoke rather than deter Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The interplay between the crises in the Middle East and Ukraine reinforces these concerns. A regional war could divert attention and resources from Ukraine, where NATO and Western support remains crucial. Rising energy costs could also weigh on European economies already strained by the effects of the war while they struggle to meet new defense spending targets recently agreed at a NATO summit attended by President Trump.

While the Israeli attack may align with Israel’s security priorities, the timing risks destabilizing an already fragile global order. The United States, caught between supporting its strategic ally and avoiding a wider conflict, faces a delicate balance that has now been disrupted by its military involvement.

The attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was expected, its timing, amid the escalating situation in Ukraine and fragile nuclear talks, raises legitimate concerns. The attack underscores the persistence of Iran’s nuclear program. As tensions rise, the international community must navigate a complex web of conflicts where miscalculations could lead to catastrophic outcomes. Diplomacy, while tense, remains the best path to averting a wider regional or global war.

-Efstathios Kassios